I write programs to play board game variants sometimes. The basic strategy is standard alpha-beta pruning or similar searches, sometimes augmented by the usual approaches to endgames or openings. I've mostly played around with chess variants, so when it comes time to pick my evaluation function, I use a basic chess evaluation function.
However, now I am writing a program to play a completely new board game. How do I choose a good or even decent evaluation function?
The main challenges are that the same pieces are always on the board, so a usual material function won't change based on position, and the game has been played less than a thousand times or so, so humans don't necessarily play it enough well yet to give insight. (PS. I considered a MoGo approach, but random games aren't likely to terminate.)
Game details: The game is played on a 10-by-10 board with a fixed six pieces per side. The pieces have certain movement rules, and interact in certain ways, but no piece is ever captured. The goal of the game is to have enough of your pieces in certain special squares on the board. The goal of the computer program is to provide a player which is competitive with or better than current human players.
If nobody understands the game yet, there's no way you can get a decent evaluation function. Don't tell me that standard alpha-beta with material count is good or even decent for chess or its variants (maybe losers' chess is an exception).
You could try neural networks with feedback or similar machine learning algorithms but they usually suck until they have tons of training, which in this case is probably not available. And even then, if they don't suck, you can't gain knowledge from them.
I think there's no way short of understanding the game the best you can and, for starters, leave the unknowns as random on the evaluation function (or just out of the picture until the unknowns become better known).
Of course, if you'd share more info about the game you could get better ideas from the community.
I would look at a supervised machine learning algorithm such as reinforcement learning. Check out Reinforcement learning in board games. I think that will give you some good directions to look into.
Also, check out Strategy Acquisition for the Game Othello Based on Reinforcement Learning (PDF link) where given the rules of the game, a good "payoff function" can be learned. This is closely related to TD-Gammon ...