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Apple is always in the news these days with "i" this and "i" that. One of the biggest beefs people have with Apple is the lack of Flash support. Last year I held the same belief, Apple's choice to exclude Flash support just seemed senseless. HTML 5 seems to have changed this though. One of the most popular users of Flash is YouTube, and they are already getting on the HTML 5 bandwagon (http://www.youtube.com/html5). Still, I am torn between the two technologies.
What is your take? Is it better for a budding developer to learn Flash or should their efforts be devoted to HTML5?
HTML5 is not going to kill Flash
HTML5 isn't meant to kill Flash. Look it at this way - first there was a web, a textual web. Then as connection speeds were growing images started showing up. As Internet then hasn't been so big as today it was easier to update the HTML with new features...
Then the revolution came, we needed something for layout and we started using tables - but that was wrong, because tables were meant to be used for tabular data. So the CSS layout techniques replaced tables - but they haven't killed the table.
Same thing is with the new HTML5 features - just recently browsers started adopting new HTML5 features like and we hadn't any alternative for video or interactive content - so we used Flash - we built interactive sites in Flash, same thing with RIA (we needed a way to transfer some code to run on the client) - but Flash isn't meant to do that. So, HTML5 techniques will replace Flash - but they will not kill the Flash.
Flash will still be used for advertising, special multimedia sites (like for movies), games, it will be used for Air applications and for mobile applications too.
HTML5 is the future for the web, but that doesn't mean Flash will die.
Steve Jobs sums it up pretty well here: http://www.apple.com/hotnews/thoughts-on-flash/
In short you defiantly need to learn HTML5 and you could get by with out knowing Flash but you might as well learn both if you can.
If you want to develop apps for the iPhone/iPad, forget about Flash and use Apple's tools. That's the way they want it and they aren't going to allow anything else (unless they are forced to legally - unlikely).
Flash is still quite widespread in desktop environments (and might be coming to Android soon too, but I'll believe it when I see it). There are still, as far as I know, a lot of things that Flash can do that HTML5 can't do right now. But that will eventually change too. However, Flash will probably always have more features because its propriety and they can make advancements to it faster than changes can go into an open standard like HTML5. But I suspect Flash will eventually become like IE: it will have its own unique set of features, but no one will care because its easier/better to develop for a more basic, but well-adopted, standard of HTML5.
Right now we seem to be in conflicting period, where one technology is trying to take-over the other. What's best for you to do in this case? For the short term, learning Flash is a good idea. For the long-run, knowing HTML5 is going to be essential.
Apple is a trivial portion of the desktop and phone market (the phone market, not the smartphone market, which is one of those categories manufacturers use to make their products look more important than they, in reality, are). The idea that everyone will do things differently because a few percent of their customer base want them to is a pretty bold gamble.
So Flash may or may not die - but it's unlikely that Apple will be the ones deciding that.
(FWIW, I see more Symbian phones using the web apps I have some responsiblity for than Blackberries, and more Blackberries than iPhones and Androids combined.)
Is it even worth my time to learn Flash?
No, and that has nothing to do with HTML 5.
Actionscript (flash's language) is basically ecmascript(JavaScript). There's a fair amount of crossover skills.
The only issue at this point is browser support for H5.