How can I predict the expected value and the varia

问题:

I'd like to use a neural network to predict a scalar value which is the sum of a function of the input values and a random value (I'm assuming gaussian distribution) whose variance also depends on the input values. Now I'd like to have a neural network that has two outputs - the first output should approximate the deterministic part - the function, and the second output should approximate the variance of the random part, depending on the input values. What loss function do I need to train such a network?

(It would be nice if there was an example with Python for Tensorflow, but I'm also interested in general answers. I'm also not quite clear how I could write something like in Python code - none of the examples I found so far show how to address individual outputs from the loss function.)

回答1:

You can use dropout for that. With a dropout layer you can make several different predictions based on different settings of which nodes dropped out. Then you can simply count the outcomes and interpret the result as a measure for uncertainty.

For details, read:

Gal, Yarin, and Zoubin Ghahramani. "Dropout as a bayesian approximation: Representing model uncertainty in deep learning." international conference on machine learning. 2016.